The Flintstones

Copying the US and UK's behavior pattern, Oz media and government has totally ignored the upcoming economic downturn. Sometimes even tried to convince the public into thinking the opposite will continue to happen. I'm no expert, maybe it was best for Oz to be ignorant until its time was due, but now its there, knocking loudly on the door and since its already happened to US and UK, Oz does look a bit foolish for not vocally predicting it.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/sto...015810,00.html
http://www.skynews.com.au/business/a...aspx?id=248833
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...ction=business
http://www.news.com.au/mercury/story...7-3462,00.html


So now the house price predictions have gone from "on the up" straight to "worst since great depression", the odds are Oz will suffer a fully blown recession. Anyone disagree?

DownUnderPaddy

The whole world is going to suffer a full blown recession. They happen every 30 odd years and we are well overdue.

No big deal though. Just need to save soap and darn socks for a few years like our parents used to :-)

jad n rich

And pick up bargains as others panic

DownUnderPaddy

Here's some more fuel for the fire from this mornings papers.
http://business.theage.com.au/more-b...0713-3ejk.html

Very glad we factored in up to 13% interest rates when we decided on the max loan for our house 3 years ago. approaching 10% doesn't seem so bad now as a result :-)

CDM

Does this mean that house-prices will go down? What about interest rates? We're about a year away from getting to Oz and I plan buy/build a house when we get there. Should I be depressed or upbeat about this imminent downturn?

- CDM

bcworld

One viewpoint:

Property nearing once-in-100-year slump

For all those fleeing doom & gloom in the UK, the media here is all of a sudden laying on the same, really thick! If the Oz property market had been on a course maybe just to flatten, I think it is being well and truly talked out of that now.

I'd not be comfortable buying now. Of course long term, it will probably be fine, but I'd rather take a chance and buy later - I actually don't think there's any chance of price increases over the next 12 - 18 months.

jad n rich

Aus is the same as any other country, has up and down cycles, imagine most of the world now is in a down one rather than up. However OZ has some very different factors to USA and UK, and people should not assume exactly the same will happen in any two countries try to look at individual factors as well.

For the average bruce, petrol prices are killing aussies, food price hikes are maxed to the extreme by the total lack of competition in just about anything here. 2 companies own 74%+ of petrols cos and almost all supermarkets. Green policy will push the price of electricity and fuel well up and I dont think most aussies realise that.

Jobs are dropping notably in some industries like housing where the gov cliams there is a shortage of workers ( gov wants lower wages ) . If your asking about house prices totally depends what you are buying, first point bulding materials are rising at a staggering rate, even more than usual, as petrol rises, people want to live closer in to the already crammed cities, shortage of land in those areas already, million house shortfall, less than 1% vacancy on rentals and building starts well down so could suggest after a short fall there will be one hell of a building boom again.

Some areas of OZ have fell think perth was 5% , melb sales have dropped, bris well our bris house, worse house than ours just sold for $80,000 more than we paid late last year, but we dont buy mega mass build estate houses this was one off waterfront in an area that had massive improvements starting 2 mos after we bought it

Should you be upbeat or depressed. Depends its a very expensive place to live now, but if the doom and gloom of the aussie papers continues, punters will panic and there will be share/currency/house bargains to be had before the next up cycle, suppose it all depends if your a panic pants or someone who sees opportunity.

NedKelly

Wait till Rudd gets his ETS going and you can forget about a recession, there will be a Depression.

jad n rich

Wonder what his 'working families' will make of the costs this will bring

Amazulu

Will there be a recession here? Who knows. If there is a recession, will it be mild or severe? I don't think there will be a recession, but what do I know? Unlike some on here, I don't claim to 'know' what's going to happen. Most 'experts' talk out of their arses.
Here is why I don't think there will be a recession in Australia:
I'm usually against high taxes and big surpluses - like we have in Australia at the moment. Right now though, this is exactly what Australia needs. The government can cut taxes to provide stimulus and they can also undertake porkbarrel projects - infrastructure for example - to keep industry active. UK has no surplus so this option is not available to them.
Resources. Often talked about but they are a reality. Many projects now coming on stream, providing massive, extra royalties to both the Feds and WA and Qld. Ongoing and new projects will keep industry active. Resources will provide major 'insulation' against recession.

That's my opinion but who knows?

stariston

Rudd & Swan were caught with there dacks down fighting inflation tooth
and nail ,when along came the credit crunch and put a spanner in the
works .The figures are all over the place due to a credit crunch
and a resources boom which are misleading the job figures. I think the
I M F should audit the rudd Governments books there hot boiled
come back John Howard all is forgiven.


NZ Is in Recession and see no shame in it and dont bend the
figures.

PS news .com.au Run hot and cold what a load of rubbish

Amazulu

Also KRudd and Co are not telling us how much their, waste of time, ETS is going to cost the average 'working' family. It was all well and good for them to spout off about 'saving the environment' to get elected. Signing Kyoto was easy peasy. Now the reality - it's gonna hurt.

stariston

I second that Rudd is a bull sh---r hes got the job now all he needs is
to trash the country

NedKelly

He doesn't spend any time here to trash the country though. He has spent nearly all his time since the election visiting foreign places with his entourage. He is like acting like Gordon Brown who was going to save Africa with UK taxpayers money. Rudd is going to save the world from Global Warming, as if 20 million Australians will make any dent when China is commissioning a coal fired power station every week. The guy has shit for brains.

Devlin

I doubt ANYONE could do the damage to Australia that the Howard years have done. Thank god!