Housing bubble in Australia

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Mar 18th 2010, 5:18 am

#841

Steve2009

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Joined: Mar 2009

Posts: 1,412

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by swigski

The RBA are casting doubt over the accuracy of the ABS quarterly CPI figures. Could the same be said of their house price figures?

http://www.smh.com.au/business/rba-c...0317-qfrg.html

Interesting to see the RBA and the ABS disagreeing. The RBA are actively pumping the market, whether they believe in what they are saying or not.

Mar 20th 2010, 12:16 pm

#842

freebo

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Joined: Feb 2008

Location: Hope Island, Gold Coast

Posts: 1,920

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

I just saw Steve Keen's updated his blog ahead of his "I was wrong" bet, Mr Keene is an economic prof who believes the Australian property market will crash and made a bet a while ago that it would have happened by now or he'd do a charity walk wearing a T-Shirt saying I was wrong. He's going through with the bet but the T-Shirt design explains why he still thinks its going to happen, and that he just got the timing wrong, some interesting graphs/stats here...

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

Mar 21st 2010, 5:26 am

#843

ABCDiamond

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Posts: n/a

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Australian property monitors have released expected house prices for 2019 in todays Sunday Mail newspaper.

HTML Code:

Postcode - Suburb   2009 Median Price	 2019 price	Increase
4077 Inala	 	 $290,000 	 $  995,856 	243.4%
4114 Kingston	 	 $285,000 	 $1,160,357 	307.1%
4114 Woodridge	 	 $245,000 	 $  923,462 	276.9%
4184 Macleay Island	 $248,000 	 $  754,600 	204.3%
4207 Eagleby	 	 $287,500 	 $1,271,635 	342.3%
4300 Goodna	 	 $290,000 	 $1,128,859 	289.3%
4305 East Ipswich	 $277,000 	 $  950,204 	243.0%
4305 Leichhardt	 	 $245,000 	 $  895,896 	265.7%
4005 New Farm	 	 $838,750 	 $2,510,264 	199.3%
4007 Hamilton	 	 $732,000 	 $1,966,327 	168.6%

Mar 21st 2010, 5:34 am

#844

Steve2009

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Joined: Mar 2009

Posts: 1,412

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond

Australian property monitors have released expected house prices for 2019 in todays Sunday Mail newspaper.

HTML Code:

Postcode - Suburb   2009 Median Price	 2019 price	Increase
4077 Inala	 	 $290,000 	 $  995,856 	243.4%
4114 Kingston	 	 $285,000 	 $1,160,357 	307.1%
4114 Woodridge	 	 $245,000 	 $  923,462 	276.9%
4184 Macleay Island	 $248,000 	 $  754,600 	204.3%
4207 Eagleby	 	 $287,500 	 $1,271,635 	342.3%
4300 Goodna	 	 $290,000 	 $1,128,859 	289.3%
4305 East Ipswich	 $277,000 	 $  950,204 	243.0%
4305 Leichhardt	 	 $245,000 	 $  895,896 	265.7%
4005 New Farm	 	 $838,750 	 $2,510,264 	199.3%
4007 Hamilton	 	 $732,000 	 $1,966,327 	168.6%

All I can say is lol. If they commented like that on an equity they would be sued not to mention ridiculed.

Mar 21st 2010, 5:39 am

#845

ABCDiamond

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Posts: n/a

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by freebo

It goes to show one thing... you can never tell what might actually happen, and to bet on something actually happening is not a sensible thing to do, unless you are prepared to lose.

Mar 21st 2010, 5:45 am

#846

boots

Forum Regular

Joined: Feb 2003

Posts: 241

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Yeah,same report in Melbourne.
Do the authours honestly believe that an Outer Western Suburb"Colourful" suburb-just call it a slum with cockroaches on welfare-will be more expensive than Inner Western Suburb with cafes,culture etc?
Just playing it up to the mug investors.

Mar 21st 2010, 5:50 am

#847

ABCDiamond

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Posts: n/a

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve2009

All I can say is lol. If they commented like that on an equity they would be sued not to mention ridiculed.

Those figures do seem somewhat far out

Almost a year ago, 5th May 2009, some figures were released by APM, RPData and ABS

It showed house prices across the country:

dropped 2.2% in the first quarter (ABS)
increased 1.52% in the first quarter, (RPData)
increased 0.1% in the first quarter (APM)

raising the question...
So which is right? And what is the real outlook for house prices?

Now remember, these are the experts.....

Mar 21st 2010, 5:53 am

#848

ABCDiamond

Guest

Posts: n/a

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by boots

I've just compared 4114 Kingston to my area near the water 4165 Victoria Point.

By 2019 they will be near enough the same price $1,160,357 and $1,211,000

I do hope they are wrong

Mar 21st 2010, 6:24 am

#849

ABCDiamond

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Posts: n/a

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond

I've just compared 4114 Kingston to my area near the water 4165 Victoria Point.

By 2019 they will be near enough the same price $1,160,357 and $1,211,000

I do hope they are wrong

PS: For those who do not know the areas.
Kingston current median price property $285k:

3 bed 1 bath

Victoria Point current median price property $452k:

4 bed 2 bath on 636.00sqm

Both quoted as being about 40 minute drive to Brisbane City.

Mar 21st 2010, 6:29 am

#850

ABCDiamond

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Posts: n/a

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Kingston 4114 Median price of $285,000 is taken from sales listed below.
The average price was $286,326

2009 Sales of Detached Houses in Kingston

$227,000 14 Skyline Dr, Kingston
$245,100 1 Orana St, Kingston
$246,150 22 Ashton St, Kingston
$253,000 187 Juers St, Kingston
$265,150 24 Antares Av, Kingston
$267,360 235 Kingston Rd, Woodridge
$267,555 30 Winifred St, Kingston
$271,500 222 Kingston Rd, Slacks Creek
$275,260 41 Ashvale St, Kingston
$277,250 41 Myra St, Kingston
$281,000 15 Carcoola St, Kingston
$285,000 51 Christopher St, Kingston
$285,000 11 Orana St, Kingston = Median
$290,000 15 Collin Ct, Kingston
$291,000 7 Ariel Av, Kingston
$291,260 13 Briner St, Kingston
$294,000 44 Clare Rd, Kingston
$295,490 16 Gidgee St, Kingston
$300,500 15 Gazania St, Kingston
$307,000 24 Brisbane St, Kingston
$309,000 28 Winifred St, Kingston
$312,160 16 Alice St, Kingston
$318,250 13 Marion St, Kingston
$332,000 450 Kingston Rd, Kingston
$371,160 26 Polaris Av, Kingston

$209,000 was the median for Units and Townhouses

Mar 21st 2010, 8:56 am

#851

freebo

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Joined: Feb 2008

Location: Hope Island, Gold Coast

Posts: 1,920

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond

Australian property monitors have released expected house prices for 2019 in todays Sunday Mail newspaper.

HTML Code:

Postcode - Suburb   2009 Median Price	 2019 price	Increase
4077 Inala	 	 $290,000 	 $  995,856 	243.4%
4114 Kingston	 	 $285,000 	 $1,160,357 	307.1%
4114 Woodridge	 	 $245,000 	 $  923,462 	276.9%
4184 Macleay Island	 $248,000 	 $  754,600 	204.3%
4207 Eagleby	 	 $287,500 	 $1,271,635 	342.3%
4300 Goodna	 	 $290,000 	 $1,128,859 	289.3%
4305 East Ipswich	 $277,000 	 $  950,204 	243.0%
4305 Leichhardt	 	 $245,000 	 $  895,896 	265.7%
4005 New Farm	 	 $838,750 	 $2,510,264 	199.3%
4007 Hamilton	 	 $732,000 	 $1,966,327 	168.6%

So presumably wages are set to increase by a commensurate amount, because you can't have one without the other...

Mar 21st 2010, 10:12 pm

#852

joydot

Forum Regular

Joined: Feb 2009

Posts: 86

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

housing is a major 21c issue and will become bigger one. in the long term they wont get cheaper... not building enough, land usage singularly unintelligent. keep in mind in discussion on accom we arent talking about nutmegs here - we arent giving shiploads of gold for a single dried seed. if you imagine it difficult now, things can get much far uglier.

i have made decent $ through houses - make the case to buy on added value. if i cant do something to a house that improves purchase value for the next owner i dont touch it, its like insurance. housing in major oz cities is eye-wateringly expensive. if you buy with your eyes wide shut, well, ouch.

Mar 21st 2010, 10:23 pm

#853

swigski

Banned

Joined: May 2007

Location: Sydney

Posts: 564

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond

Australian property monitors have released expected house prices for 2019 in todays Sunday Mail newspaper.

HTML Code:

Postcode - Suburb   2009 Median Price	 2019 price	Increase
4077 Inala	 	 $290,000 	 $  995,856 	243.4%
4114 Kingston	 	 $285,000 	 $1,160,357 	307.1%
4114 Woodridge	 	 $245,000 	 $  923,462 	276.9%
4184 Macleay Island	 $248,000 	 $  754,600 	204.3%
4207 Eagleby	 	 $287,500 	 $1,271,635 	342.3%
4300 Goodna	 	 $290,000 	 $1,128,859 	289.3%
4305 East Ipswich	 $277,000 	 $  950,204 	243.0%
4305 Leichhardt	 	 $245,000 	 $  895,896 	265.7%
4005 New Farm	 	 $838,750 	 $2,510,264 	199.3%
4007 Hamilton	 	 $732,000 	 $1,966,327 	168.6%

That is ridiculous! So, someone earning $50,000 today can expect to be earning about $175,000 in 2019 to afford this.

Spruiking at it's best!

Mar 21st 2010, 10:36 pm

#854

Steve2009

BE Forum Addict

Joined: Mar 2009

Posts: 1,412

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:

Originally Posted by joydot

Australia has no shortage of land.

Quote:

Originally Posted by joydot

i have made decent $ through houses - make the case to buy on added value. if i cant do something to a house that improves purchase value for the next owner i dont touch it, its like insurance. housing in major oz cities is eye-wateringly expensive. if you buy with your eyes wide shut, well, ouch.

It's easy to add value in a rising market. Flippers have often done it purely by hoarding stock off plans and selling once built.

The potential of a doer upper is already priced in because there is no shortage of people who are willing to and actually enjoy renovating. In fact it's possible that doer-uppers are over-riced because you are often competing with wealthy amateurs who have under priced their renovation and hence overpriced the property.

It's a different case in a falling market. In Ireland and the US now there are hundreds of thousands of houses (millions in US?) that cannot sell for what it cost to build them. Even with the cost of labour substantially down it's unlikely that a house built today could sell for what it costs to build because there is over supply.

Mar 21st 2010, 10:57 pm

#855

swigski

Banned

Joined: May 2007

Location: Sydney

Posts: 564

Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Record number of properties for sale and falling clearance rates!!

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/record-num...0311-q1lc.html

What happens when a 'bubble' pops?

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/i...ticle_id=12776

* Below is sourced from above article. *

But what can we expect in the dying months of a bubble?

If history’s any guide, then get set for decreasing sales volumes and rising prices. This phenom happens as a real estate balloon deflates. Unwilling to face reality, sellers continue to ask bubble prices. Unschooled about market conditions, the last crop of greater fools blow their wads on over-valued properties, egged on by agents sniffing drought in the air. And then, it’s over.

Sales volumes fall drastically first, and prices 60 to 90 days later.

Why does it take months for prices to start to react? Because most sellers today are greedy and unrealistic, thinking bizarre prices caused by emergency interest rates are the new normal. Even as listings surge, asking prices stay at bubbleterious levels – which means sellers have to go through two or three months of lonely open houses and a paucity of offers before they understand there’s only one reason in history why a house did not sell: the wrong price.

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