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Old Feb 5th 2010, 8:05 am   #61
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:
Originally Posted by pomtastic View Post
RIGHTO - back to the crystal ball predictions on what's going to happen to property.
'Demand for home Loans Dive in January'
Demand has been dropping since before January. The previous months drop was even larger.

Decline in Mortgages issued:
Down 12% Sept 09 to Oct-09
Down 8% Oct 09 to Nov-09
Down 21% Nov 09 to Dec-09
Down 15% Dec 09 to Jan-10

Total drop from Sept 2009 - Jan 2010 = 45%

Mortgage sales increased from Sept 2008 to Sept 2009 by 29.6%
Mortgage sales De-creased from Jan 2009 to Jan 2010 by 21.1%

So this big drop that is being reported, is when compared to the September Peak.

However, the January 2010 numbers do appear to be at the lowest they have been for at least 3 years.

BUT... Mortgages issued to investors comparing Jan 2009 and Jan 2010 has actually risen slightly !
 
Old Feb 6th 2010, 2:17 am   #62
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Can I ask you ABC Diamond, whether you still are as confident now as you were back in Oct/Nov that Australia will avoid going into recession in the early months of 2010 like I predicted?
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Old Feb 6th 2010, 2:33 am   #63
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

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Originally Posted by swigski View Post
Can I ask you ABC Diamond, whether you still are as confident now as you were back in Oct/Nov that Australia will avoid going into recession in the early months of 2010 like I predicted?
Rock on Swigski. The crash is underway right now.
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Old Feb 6th 2010, 2:35 am   #64
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

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Originally Posted by swigski View Post
Can I ask you ABC Diamond, whether you still are as confident now as you were back in Oct/Nov that Australia will avoid going into recession in the early months of 2010 like I predicted?
What were my exact words back then, can you quote them ?
 
Old Feb 6th 2010, 2:35 am   #65
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

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Originally Posted by pomtastic View Post
Rock on Swigski. The crash is underway right now.
What crash ?
 
Old Feb 6th 2010, 2:37 am   #66
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

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What crash ?
errr, the world stock markets????!!!!
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Old Feb 6th 2010, 3:04 am   #67
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:
Originally Posted by pomtastic View Post
errr, the world stock markets????!!!!
Last Five days US market
+15.32
+14.13
- 6.04
-34.17
+ 3.08

Total change = down 7.68 on a 1,080 base = -0.711%
or 7 cents lost for every $108.00

I don't see that as a crash as such.


Sat 6th Feb 2010
Quote:
New York - US stock indices rose Friday across the board, nudging into positive territory after dipping down with worries over budget deficits in individual European countries. The upswing on the Dow Jones Industrial Average came in the final hour of trading, when it emerged that the European Union may propose a solution for Greece's deficit, Bloomberg financial news service reported.

The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 10.05 points or 0.1 per cent to 10,012.23. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 3.08 points or 0.29 per cent to 1,066.19. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 15.69 points or 0.74 per cent to 2,141.12.

The picture was less positive in Europe, where the FTSE lost 1.53 per cent, France's CAC declined 3.4 per cent and Germany's DAX shed 1.79 per cent.

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/s...#ixzz0eilEwsIQ
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Old Feb 6th 2010, 3:07 am   #68
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

From the Financial Times....

US consumer credit uncrunched?
9:11pm Something to celebrate, surely? Consumer debt shrank by a palty $1.7bn in December, the smallest contraction since last February and way below the $9bn contraction expected by economists....

Wobble? What wobble?
8:38pm Or, “Who cares about Portugal/Greece/Spain/Italy/UK ?”Or, “It was a fat finger in WTI; never seen a computerised trading glitch?”Or, “Gold is a very small market;...
 
Old Feb 6th 2010, 3:18 am   #69
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

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Originally Posted by ABCDiamond View Post
From the Financial Times....

“Gold is a very small market;...
A market used as a leading indicator of other market sentiment.

None the less Australia has resources to enable it to take action in a floundering global economy. What has the UK and Europe?

Why are asian markets so important? Its because they go from bust to boom in about 0.001 nano seconds. Australia has 70% of its trade with them

American greed will ignite economic stimulus. I saw more pompous culture in UK and Europe too much old money rather than blood and sweat.

My observations anyway.
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Old Feb 6th 2010, 3:21 am   #70
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:
Originally Posted by ABCDiamond View Post
What were my exact words back then, can you quote them ?
I do not have the time to trawl through all your posts or the inclination.

Your responses to my statements around Oct/Nov last year, when I stated that Australia would have it's recession around Feb/Mar 2010, certainly made it obvious that you believed this most definitely would not happen and I seem to remember you posting stats at some time too

You could always just answer the question?
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Old Feb 6th 2010, 3:27 am   #71
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

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Originally Posted by swigski View Post
I do not have the time to trawl through all your posts or the inclination.

Your responses to my statements around Oct/Nov last year, when I stated that Australia would have it's recession around Feb/Mar 2010, certainly made it obvious that you believed this most definitely would not happen and I seem to remember you posting stats at some time too

You could always just answer the question?
I still believe what I believed back then.

Do you still agree with what you said about July 2008 time ?
 
Old Feb 6th 2010, 3:36 am   #72
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

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Originally Posted by ABCDiamond View Post
What crash ?
Financial meltdown
- $31b wiped off the local share market

- 2.4% loss on All Ordinaries on the day

- 1.5c how much the Australian dollar lost against the US dollar

- 3 European countries remain on the financial brink including Spain, Portugal and Greece

- $144b in market losses since the January high

- 4,532.50 All Ords closed down 111.60 points or -2.40% yesterday

- $15b in superannuation lost on the day
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Old Feb 6th 2010, 3:43 am   #73
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:
Originally Posted by swigski View Post
Financial meltdown
- $31b wiped off the local share market

- 2.4% loss on All Ordinaries on the day

- 1.5c how much the Australian dollar lost against the US dollar

- 3 European countries remain on the financial brink including Spain, Portugal and Greece

- $144b in market losses since the January high

- 4,532.50 All Ords closed down 111.60 points or -2.40% yesterday

- $15b in superannuation lost on the day
Sounds more like a correction than a meltdown.
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Old Feb 6th 2010, 3:46 am   #74
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

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Originally Posted by pomtastic View Post
Rock on Swigski. The crash is underway right now.
You mean the Australian Stock market ?

Australian All Ordinaries Index


Or is there another one ?

The 2007-2008 one was a crash, after a massive rise.

This last one is a blip in comparison to what Australia endured in 2007-08.
We had four of those "blips", or 'crashes' if you prefer, in the big rise from 2003-2007.
 
Old Feb 6th 2010, 3:46 am   #75
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Quote:
Originally Posted by ABCDiamond View Post
I still believe what I believed back then.

Do you still agree with what you said about July 2008 time ?
Sorry, you've lost me. Would not have entered into any debates about Australian economy at July 2008. Did not move here until Feb 2009. I remember entering into discussions on the Oz economy around Oct 2009.

Unless of course, you can quote me?
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