Originally Posted by aroche

As someone who arrived back from Australia to Ireland in early 2007, - the similarities with the Irish bust are truly striking.
OK, my view is that it won't be quite as deep or detrimental as here given that Australia has its own currency and control over rates, but mark my words there will be a bust and a big one.
Its all starts with a few jitters, I'd say Australia is in the "indifference" phase going into denial
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...ve-of-contempt
It was all talk of soft landings here as well and "Ireland is different".
The dual income families was one that came up a lot as justification for higher prices. Remember, - down the line, people want to have children, creches have to be paid thus negating the dual income factor very quickly.
Obviously the Australia and Ireland scenario have their differences, - but there are many, many similiarities. Its all sentiment, - once sentiment starts to rock, its unstoppable

This thread from an Irish board will be interesting reading for many here.
It was started in late 2006 just when doubts were starting and more or less chronicles the boom to bust. Again, its based on a particular article in the media a the time(sound familiar), and runs right up to the current time with nearly 7000 posts.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...p?t=2055033806
Comparisons between posts from the start of that thread and now are very, very interesting indeed!!

Originally Posted by swans

Wow ,thats amazing.A house in california goes down in price and it proves that poperty in OZ will plunge ,surely it would mean every house in the world will be worthless.

Here's another good one,General motors went bankrupt,this proves every company in the world is going bust,everybody sell ,SELL,SELL,SELL,before the panic really hits.

Don't forget Japan in the late 80 s early 90 s,that must prove a lot.

Thankfully I'm buying tulip bulbs,I'll be rich,it happened in Holland in the 1700s,sure to happen in OZ.

Always select one peice of information ,and always say it proves everything you want to see.

Geordie downunder

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle

Perths overall Median is still 10,000 Aud more than Melbournes, @ 480,000 v $470,000. Historically until this last boom that was never the case. There has to be some adjustment on that basis alone.

How Australia really fares comes down to 3 RE markets.... Canberra (for wages), Melbourne (for urban growth) and most importantly Sydney (for a real gauge of the overall economy). If prices crash in Sydney, then it really is on. If prices dont go down, or at least stay stable for the next 5 years, then the Australian economy has performed a real miracle. My guess is a 20 pct drop in the next 18-36 months, then stability then perhaps another boom if and when the rest of the world recovers. If it recovers sooner the less impact there will be.... fat chance of that by the looks though..

Perth and the Gold Coast in particular have always fluctuated wildly.

Originally Posted by pomtastic

Rememeber when bank managers used to say NO, NO, NO!! Unfortunately, they've been saying YES, YES, YES for too long!

Originally Posted by pomtastic

Thanks - I'll have a look at that Irish property forum. I'm sure there are some classic pearlers in there!

Originally Posted by fish.01

I assume you don't mean that as blanket as it comes across. I'm sure some people don't take into account even minor interest rate rises but many do. Not all are stupid

Originally Posted by lumpommer

It just confirms that property prices are dropping like a stone.

I think that the Australian property market is dead in the water.

Originally Posted by littda01

If anyone's still in any doubt as to how bad a situation Australia has got itself into here, I'd recommend reading Steve Keens response to the banking competition enquiry:

"The Australian Senate’s Standing Committee on Economics has established an inquiry into competition in the banking sector, and I was invited by the Committee to make a submission. "

You can find it at his blog http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/.

It tells the whole sorry tale.

Originally Posted by littda01

Look, whether you believe everything he says or not (and some of his views...

And as for his stupidity in getting drawn into his "walking" bet - classic case of an academic over-reaching on his theories and being trapped into a bet he didnt want (he never argued WHEN prices would fall 40%, only that they WOULD).

Originally Posted by geordiebloke

Now again, correct me if I'm wrong, but surely as many people will benefit from house prices dropping 40% as will suffer.

Apart from the first time buyers, even someone in my position, trying to climb the property ladder, that house that currently costs 100k more than my house, will now only be 60k more etc etc ??????

Or is this rationale wrong