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Old Nov 30th 2010, 9:16 am   #91
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Default Re: The Great Australian Property Swindle

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Originally Posted by ABCDiamond View Post
I was trying to get you to back up your claim on the distressed mortgages in Australia.
Maybe that is because my 'claim' was regarding Irish mortgages.
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Old Nov 30th 2010, 9:19 am   #92
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Bubble has burst in Perth. As I said, the weakest links go first. The writing was on the wall as clear as day here in Perth.

9 months of continuous drops for Perth - ho hum. Glad I sold up, renting and getting a nice 6.5% on my house proceedings. Now is the time to be out of property in Perth. The falls will escalate when all the negative gearing folk realise they are sitting on dud investments. Just like Ireland, too confident, too much money piled into property with no regard for the future. When this baby goes, it will be catastrophic I'm afraid.

Housing slump continues ......

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-...ump-continues/
As that article says...

Quote:
The median price through the quarter in Perth was $480,000, lower than the national average of $488,000.

This year, median house prices in Perth are down 2.8 percent and over the past 12 months are off 1.1 percent.

Nationally, dwelling prices were up 0.3 percent in October.
 
Old Nov 30th 2010, 9:23 am   #93
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Default Re: The Great Australian Property Swindle

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Originally Posted by Steve2009 View Post
Maybe that is because my 'claim' was regarding Irish mortgages.
I see (I can do these aswell) .. I have just re-read it again... It is very clearly about Ireland after all.
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Originally Posted by Steve2009 View Post
Judging by the number of distressed mortgages I would say quite a lot. If a bank wouldn't lend them what they wanted they would go elsewhere. It was rare for people to consider black swan events. I would wonder how many in Australia would factor in such scenarios as an interest rate hike, loss of one income, falling rents or rising voids.
Everyone else was talking about Australia for some reason.
 
Old Nov 30th 2010, 9:34 am   #94
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Default Re: The Great Australian Property Swindle

As someone who arrived back from Australia to Ireland in early 2007, - the similarities with the Irish bust are truly striking.
OK, my view is that it won't be quite as deep or detrimental as here given that Australia has its own currency and control over rates, but mark my words there will be a bust and a big one.
Its all starts with a few jitters, I'd say Australia is in the "indifference" phase going into denial
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...ve-of-contempt
It was all talk of soft landings here as well and "Ireland is different".
The dual income families was one that came up a lot as justification for higher prices. Remember, - down the line, people want to have children, creches have to be paid thus negating the dual income factor very quickly.
Obviously the Australia and Ireland scenario have their differences, - but there are many, many similiarities. Its all sentiment, - once sentiment starts to rock, its unstoppable

This thread from an Irish board will be interesting reading for many here.
It was started in late 2006 just when doubts were starting and more or less chronicles the boom to bust. Again, its based on a particular article in the media a the time(sound familiar), and runs right up to the current time with nearly 7000 posts.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...p?t=2055033806
Comparisons between posts from the start of that thread and now are very, very interesting indeed!!
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Old Nov 30th 2010, 10:53 am   #95
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Default Perth property fall continues

Believe it or not the price fall in Perth continues http://www.news.com.au/perth-propert...rom=public_rss
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Old Nov 30th 2010, 10:54 am   #96
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Default Re: The Great Australian Property Swindle

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Originally Posted by ABCDiamond View Post
As that article says...
Monthly prices changes in Perth taken from RP Data. As I said, the ninth monthly drop in a row.
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Old Nov 30th 2010, 11:01 am   #97
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Default Re: The Great Australian Property Swindle

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Old Nov 30th 2010, 11:02 am   #98
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Default Re: The Great Australian Property Swindle

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Originally Posted by ABCDiamond View Post
I see (I can do these aswell) .. I have just re-read it again... It is very clearly about Ireland after all.
Very gracious of you to acknowledge that. Thanks.
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Old Nov 30th 2010, 11:12 am   #99
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Default Re: The Great Australian Property Swindle

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Originally Posted by geordiebloke View Post
Now, not being an expert on these things and I can understand why property prices could stagnate, or maybe drop a little, but surely if the "bubble" was going to burst, it would have done so during the global recession, not during the recovery?????????

Apart from rising interest rates, would rising employment, projected household incomes and economic outlook, at the very least, not stabilise house prices????
The Govt stepped in and gave unprecedented aid to the housing market through grants/bribes and 50 year low interest rates. They saw what happened to Ireland, Spain and US and prevented the same thing happening here. They've just kicked the can down the road.

Asset bubbles do indeed bring down whole economies and that's why they are 'deflating' the housing bubble here in Aus, right here, right now. Everyone likes to think that Australia is better, smarter, faster, harder working than any other country in the world and our high house prices are somehow justified by this fact. Wrong - easy debt, debt socialisation, that's all it is!

People somehow think Perth was 'discovered' during 2003 - 2007 when house prices went through the roof as if it was a 'little secret' the world had just discovered. Wrong - it was high house prices in UK versus cheap Aus and a favourable currency exchange rate, that's all.

High house prices are trying to be justified by newspaper articles that everyone is earning top dollar, that's a classic sign of a bubble I'm afraid, been done many times before in other countries.
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Old Nov 30th 2010, 11:19 am   #100
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Default Re: Perth property fall continues

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Originally Posted by Perthine View Post
Believe it or not the price fall in Perth continues http://www.news.com.au/perth-propert...rom=public_rss
Check out Perth Now's report.

As I've said in the past on BE, the outer suburbs are a mini California here, waiting to bust and it looks like the media is finally admitting to it as they can't hide and lie about the facts anymore. The cancer will spread through out Perth IMO. Top end, outer suburbs are crashing, the rot will spread, nowhere is immune.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/...-1225963274108

Quote:
Mr Kusher said he didn’t agree with the predictions of some doomsayers that the local market will fall by up to 40 per cent but said there is likely to be further pain for Perth homeowners seeking to sell their properties as more homes come onto the market.

He said there are nearly as many homes listed for sale now as there were at the height of the global financial crisis.

“There’s a lot of people looking to sell, but there aren’t a lot of buyers out there at the moment,” he said.

Mr Kusher said sellers in outer metropolitan areas may find it particularly difficult to get good prices for their properties.

“People have probably paid a little too much for those properties, particularly when you get onto the outskirts of the city. It really highlights the fact that you’ve got to really consider the location and your price you’re buying.
“People tend to get very excited about having a brand new home, but when brand new homes that are 30-40 kilometres from the city and nowhere near public transport and nowhere near amenities cost so much, reselling it can be a little bit difficult,” said Mr Kusher.
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Old Dec 1st 2010, 2:31 am   #101
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Default Re: Perth property fall continues

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Originally Posted by pomtastic View Post
Check out Perth Now's report.

As I've said in the past on BE, the outer suburbs are a mini California here, waiting to bust and it looks like the media is finally admitting to it as they can't hide and lie about the facts anymore. The cancer will spread through out Perth IMO. Top end, outer suburbs are crashing, the rot will spread, nowhere is immune.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/...-1225963274108
Perths overall Median is still 10,000 Aud more than Melbournes, @ 480,000 v $470,000. Historically until this last boom that was never the case. There has to be some adjustment on that basis alone.

How Australia really fares comes down to 3 RE markets.... Canberra (for wages), Melbourne (for urban growth) and most importantly Sydney (for a real gauge of the overall economy). If prices crash in Sydney, then it really is on. If prices dont go down, or at least stay stable for the next 5 years, then the Australian economy has performed a real miracle. My guess is a 20 pct drop in the next 18-36 months, then stability then perhaps another boom if and when the rest of the world recovers. If it recovers sooner the less impact there will be.... fat chance of that by the looks though..

Perth and the Gold Coast in particular have always fluctuated wildly.
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Old Dec 1st 2010, 2:46 am   #102
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Default Re: The Great Australian Property Swindle

Quote:
Originally Posted by aroche View Post
As someone who arrived back from Australia to Ireland in early 2007, - the similarities with the Irish bust are truly striking.
OK, my view is that it won't be quite as deep or detrimental as here given that Australia has its own currency and control over rates, but mark my words there will be a bust and a big one.
Its all starts with a few jitters, I'd say Australia is in the "indifference" phase going into denial
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...ve-of-contempt
It was all talk of soft landings here as well and "Ireland is different".
The dual income families was one that came up a lot as justification for higher prices. Remember, - down the line, people want to have children, creches have to be paid thus negating the dual income factor very quickly.
Obviously the Australia and Ireland scenario have their differences, - but there are many, many similiarities. Its all sentiment, - once sentiment starts to rock, its unstoppable

This thread from an Irish board will be interesting reading for many here.
It was started in late 2006 just when doubts were starting and more or less chronicles the boom to bust. Again, its based on a particular article in the media a the time(sound familiar), and runs right up to the current time with nearly 7000 posts.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...p?t=2055033806
Comparisons between posts from the start of that thread and now are very, very interesting indeed!!
Always difficult to sift through the facts to try and predict what is happening as every market changes for a reason not just to copy others. I have seen it both ways - soft landings and proper crashes. They would have all had similar posts so don't find it much of a predictor.
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Old Dec 1st 2010, 7:11 am   #103
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Default Re: Perth property fall continues

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Originally Posted by ozzieeagle View Post

Perth and the Gold Coast in particular have always fluctuated wildly.
Property types are also very diverse on the Gold Coast with Mc mansions crammed side by side easily worth less than the prices asked and and the prices asked for some units do not make sense as you get very little in the way of value for money or location for that matter.

A standard 4 bed family house in an established area like Mudgeeraba which was settled over 100years ago or even small acreage are not exactly cheap but could still be considered value for money if you are into that type of thing and while inflation may see them reduce in real terms it is unlikely they will crash in $terms.


Something new on a Legoland development on the motorway corridor up to Brisbane with lots of rentals and once the rendered finishes discolour and start to fall off and the grass grows around the commodore in the neighbours garden could very well lose value.

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Old Dec 1st 2010, 7:55 am   #104
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Default Re: The Great Australian Property Swindle

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Originally Posted by Seneca21 View Post
Totally. I know someone whose house in northern CA was worth $4 million a few years ago and is now worth $2.5 million. Just. Like. That.

The same will happen in Australia, sooner or later.
Wow ,thats amazing.A house in california goes down in price and it proves that poperty in OZ will plunge ,surely it would mean every house in the world will be worthless.

Here's another good one,General motors went bankrupt,this proves every company in the world is going bust,everybody sell ,SELL,SELL,SELL,before the panic really hits.

Don't forget Japan in the late 80 s early 90 s,that must prove a lot.

Thankfully I'm buying tulip bulbs,I'll be rich,it happened in Holland in the 1700s,sure to happen in OZ.

Always select one peice of information ,and always say it proves everything you want to see.

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Old Dec 1st 2010, 8:06 am   #105
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Default Re: The Great Australian Property Swindle

I cant see the Australian housing market to continue to rise as in the end it will price out the buyers, the young wont be able to afford a place so they will leave Oz and go else where so the country will end up in a skills shortage and if you think migrantes will want to go to oz with expensive housing and a poor exchange rate think again.

The prices have to reflect the market not the get quick market people need affordable housing so house the countries workforce you cant have a country full of multi millionaires now that would be fair lol
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