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Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

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Old Nov 3rd 2014, 4:58 pm
  #16  
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by johnnye
You're having a laugh.

have you not been watching the news over the last few years?

The European experiment goes to show that single, shared currencies only work if there is political union such as the USA. A one interest rate fits all fails and is very bad for business and the consumer if there is no political union. An interest rate that will be suitable for Germany will not work in Greece because its economy is different. Think of it as two cars one diesel one unleaded. If you put diesel in the unleaded it doesn't run too well, it might even stop.

Look at the consumer and business hardship created in the Club Med states of Europe.

I cannot believe that people still advocate that the Euro is a good thing. It's mad and always has been.
Yeah, watching the news has been quite entertaining over the years. How many times have we heard silly stories about the Euro's demise? 100...200+ times during this time? Has it happened? Nope. Pure media hype aimed at drumming up sensationalist stories, nothing more...

Europe is a common market, just like the US. Politics has less influence over this than economics. Yes, economies can vary, but they vary in exactly the same way over in the US as each state is different. You have industry here, farming elsewhere, what's good for Idaho or Nebraska does not have to be good for California. Same in Europe. In the US they set the interest rate that's best for everyone overall and that's it. They do the same in Europe except that we'll always get the constant bickering of child-like politicians when a common decision is made that isn't exactly what they personally wanted.

The PIIGS nations didn't suffer because there is something inherently wrong about the Euro. In fact the only reason they got in trouble was due to the strong benefits in becoming part of the single currency. Upon joining the Euro the PIIGS nations were first and foremost free of the great ball and chain in the form of super-high interest rates that stifled their ability to borrow over their heads to spend yet more than they could afford. Joining the Euro opened up new doors and offered cheap access to yet more funding. Many of those nations, especially those with politicians too lazy to reform, preferred to pretend that things will sort themselves out somehow and that in the meantime they should just keep spending more and worry about the debt later. Of course this was going to spell trouble...

But is it the Euro's fault? Give someone a credit card, make the rate the lowest on the market by far, and if someone then goes out and overspends then it's the card issuer's fault even though they provided the most fair conditions out there? In my view if you overspend you only have yourself to blame and anything else is pure scapegoating...
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Old Nov 4th 2014, 5:38 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by astera
Yeah, watching the news has been quite entertaining over the years. How many times have we heard silly stories about the Euro's demise? 100...200+ times during this time? Has it happened? Nope. Pure media hype aimed at drumming up sensationalist stories, nothing more...

Europe is a common market, just like the US. Politics has less influence over this than economics. Yes, economies can vary, but they vary in exactly the same way over in the US as each state is different. You have industry here, farming elsewhere, what's good for Idaho or Nebraska does not have to be good for California. Same in Europe. In the US they set the interest rate that's best for everyone overall and that's it. They do the same in Europe except that we'll always get the constant bickering of child-like politicians when a common decision is made that isn't exactly what they personally wanted.

No. Europe was common market as voted for by the people of the 70s. Europe is now much more than that with freedom of movement, a common currency and the power to legislate, none of which was voted for by the British people.

The U.S. Is a Federation of states. The collective money goes into a pot and is controlled by a Federal government evenly, ensuring such things as welfare and healthcare are equally distributed across all the states.

In Europe these things are not equally distributed therefore people gravitate to the states where they can gain the greatest advantage. Hence we now see UK nationals having their pensions and healthcare devalued because things need to spread across more people.

The PIIGS nations didn't suffer because there is something inherently wrong about the Euro. In fact the only reason they got in trouble was due to the strong benefits in becoming part of the single currency. Upon joining the Euro the PIIGS nations were first and foremost free of the great ball and chain in the form of super-high interest rates that stifled their ability to borrow over their heads to spend yet more than they could afford. Joining the Euro opened up new doors and offered cheap access to yet more funding. Many of those nations, especially those with politicians too lazy to reform, preferred to pretend that things will sort themselves out somehow and that in the meantime they should just keep spending more and worry about the debt later. Of course this was going to spell trouble...

No. Interest rates were high because they needed to be ie. To stop people borrowing more than the could afford. These "doors" you talk about should never have been opened

But is it the Euro's fault? Give someone a credit card, make the rate the lowest on the market by far, and if someone then goes out and overspends then it's the card issuer's fault even though they provided the most fair conditions out there? In my view if you overspend you only have yourself to blame and anything else is pure scapegoating...
Yes. Don't give them the credit card in the first place because human nature says they will use it if they Can.
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Old Nov 4th 2014, 8:02 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Yes, if you want to have a common economic area then you have to remove most boundaries. So companies can sell their products where they want (no import tariffs, limits, local certificates, etc.), people can live and work where they want (no visas, restrictions), and a common currency is introduced to make trade (and life in general) easier. Lifting boundaries is the way forward.

It's in people's interest to be part of the Euro. Look what happened in Greece - if they weren't part of the Eurozone their dinky, little currency would have caved in, people would have lost their life savings, trade would be in disarray with cross-currency deals no longer making sense due to a free-fall in the local currency. In other words: Greece would be a total mess. The Euro is a safety net, a financial umbrella that prevents financial disarray from happening like it did in Iceland.

Yes, the US is a federation of states and the EU is a union of countries. We all know that. The US sets a lot of things at the state level though, and state budgets are just as important as local budgets in the EU. In some ways the EU is more of a single country than the US. Take a look at education. UK student chooses to study in Berlin... they are charged the local rate. North Dakota student chooses to study in South Dakota... and they are charged as if they were a FOREIGNER.

Don't pin everything on the federal budget. You mention welfare and that is certainly not equal either. There are plenty of hell-holes in the US where people flock across the border to register for welfare reasons alone.

As for healthcare, do you really want to look at the US example?
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Old Nov 4th 2014, 8:09 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

It's in people's interests to do it if they are first asked. The assumption is not based on democracy so I can't support it and I'm pretty certain if it was put to the vote, the UK would say NO to it.

In Greece peoplelost their life savings when they joined the Euro.

The U.S. sets a lots of things at state level but NOT the Importent interest rate which make it all work.


Originally Posted by astera
Yes, if you want to have a common economic area then you have to remove most boundaries. So companies can sell their products where they want (no import tariffs, limits, local certificates, etc.), people can live and work where they want (no visas, restrictions), and a common currency is introduced to make trade (and life in general) easier. Lifting boundaries is the way forward.

It's in people's interest to be part of the Euro. Look what happened in Greece - if they weren't part of the Eurozone their dinky, little currency would have caved in, people would have lost their life savings, trade would be in disarray with cross-currency deals no longer making sense due to a free-fall in the local currency. In other words: Greece would be a total mess. The Euro is a safety net, a financial umbrella that prevents financial disarray from happening like it did in Iceland.

Yes, the US is a federation of states and the EU is a union of countries. We all know that. The US sets a lot of things at the state level though, and state budgets are just as important as local budgets in the EU. In some ways the EU is more of a single country than the US. Take a look at education. UK student chooses to study in Berlin... they are charged the local rate. North Dakota student chooses to study in South Dakota... and they are charged as if they were a FOREIGNER.

Don't pin everything on the federal budget. You mention welfare and that is certainly not equal either. There are plenty of hell-holes in the US where people flock across the border to register for welfare reasons alone.

As for healthcare, do you really want to look at the US example?
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Old Nov 4th 2014, 8:41 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

You vote on a gov't and then they set policy. Only major decisions are put into direct referendums, like joining the EU, adopting the Euro, etc. Luckily this isn't Switzerland with their minute issues and people voting on whether the head of gov't can get a new car or whether parliament can order an annual supply of toilet paper because company X just raised their price by Fr. 0.01 per roll.

Greece saved itself by joining the Euro. They would have caved in with people's life savings turning to dust had they kept their old "currency." Why do you think Greece officially falsified economic data just to get in through the door?

I think the rest of Europe is getting tired of the UK's moaning and whining, which has nothing to do with anything important but is simply a result of internal political bickering (one party trying to out-shout the other to win over the votes of the lowest elements of society).

And when patience runs out the UK will be told to start behaving like an adult or leave through the front door. And then the UK economy is in trouble, the country will be isolated, tariffs can be put in place against any products that EU nations will feel will help them. The only benefit - though the UK gov't will feel the exact opposite, especially Cameron if he's still not a relict of the past - would be the EU targeting UK's financial thieves (the 'Pirate Bay' known as 'The City') and putting an end to that parasite.

UK students will no longer be allowed to study in Europe unless they pay non-EU rates (8x higher?). They might even need to wait for visas. Forget about retiring in Spain or Portugal without special visas. Forget about the easy of opening up a business there, let alone hiring UK nationals working there or elsewhere. UK citizens will have the same rights as Moroccans coming to work in Europe. No thanks!

Need I mention that leaving the EU is the same as leaving the United Kingdom even? Because Scots aren't foolish enough to stay if that happens, and Wales will be next in line to abandon a sinking ship while mentally-unsound politicians in London pretend (as always) that it's somebody else's fault.

In other words: the United Kingdom will stay in the EU (or at least 2/3 of the mainland will). The question is, will England leave the United Kingdom?
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Old Nov 4th 2014, 9:45 am
  #21  
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by astera
You vote on a gov't and then they set policy. Only major decisions are put into direct referendums, like joining the EU, adopting the Euro, etc.

Luckily this isn't Switzerland with their minute issues and people voting on whether the head of gov't can get a new car or whether parliament can order an annual supply of toilet paper because company X just raised their price by Fr. 0.01 per roll.
Not quite that bad...

Swiss national Level Referendums (per year):
2014: 9 to October 2014
2013: 11
2012: 12

Direct Democracy » ABCDiamond
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Old Nov 4th 2014, 11:08 am
  #22  
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

You're entitled to your opinion just like I'm entitled to think that it is one of fantasy. You're not going to convince me of the benefits of the European experiment.

I'm going to leave it there and will be unsubscribing from this thread


Originally Posted by astera
You vote on a gov't and then they set policy. Only major decisions are put into direct referendums, like joining the EU, adopting the Euro, etc. Luckily this isn't Switzerland with their minute issues and people voting on whether the head of gov't can get a new car or whether parliament can order an annual supply of toilet paper because company X just raised their price by Fr. 0.01 per roll.

Greece saved itself by joining the Euro. They would have caved in with people's life savings turning to dust had they kept their old "currency." Why do you think Greece officially falsified economic data just to get in through the door?

I think the rest of Europe is getting tired of the UK's moaning and whining, which has nothing to do with anything important but is simply a result of internal political bickering (one party trying to out-shout the other to win over the votes of the lowest elements of society).

And when patience runs out the UK will be told to start behaving like an adult or leave through the front door. And then the UK economy is in trouble, the country will be isolated, tariffs can be put in place against any products that EU nations will feel will help them. The only benefit - though the UK gov't will feel the exact opposite, especially Cameron if he's still not a relict of the past - would be the EU targeting UK's financial thieves (the 'Pirate Bay' known as 'The City') and putting an end to that parasite.

UK students will no longer be allowed to study in Europe unless they pay non-EU rates (8x higher?). They might even need to wait for visas. Forget about retiring in Spain or Portugal without special visas. Forget about the easy of opening up a business there, let alone hiring UK nationals working there or elsewhere. UK citizens will have the same rights as Moroccans coming to work in Europe. No thanks!

Need I mention that leaving the EU is the same as leaving the United Kingdom even? Because Scots aren't foolish enough to stay if that happens, and Wales will be next in line to abandon a sinking ship while mentally-unsound politicians in London pretend (as always) that it's somebody else's fault.

In other words: the United Kingdom will stay in the EU (or at least 2/3 of the mainland will). The question is, will England leave the United Kingdom?
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Old Nov 4th 2014, 11:14 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by astera
You vote on a gov't and then they set policy. Only major decisions are put into direct referendums, like joining the EU, adopting the Euro, etc. Luckily this isn't Switzerland with their minute issues and people voting on whether the head of gov't can get a new car or whether parliament can order an annual supply of toilet paper because company X just raised their price by Fr. 0.01 per roll.
I think you should change your nickname to Dream Weaver, Astera. I LIKE the picture you paint, of people being involved in decisions for which the existing government doesn't have a clear mandate. Loo rolls might be going a bit far though
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Old Nov 4th 2014, 3:29 pm
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by johnnye
You're entitled to your opinion just like I'm entitled to think that it is one of fantasy. You're not going to convince me of the benefits of the European experiment.

I'm going to leave it there and will be unsubscribing from this thread
Of course, that's only natural. But if you have the pros clearly laid out and choose not to accept them then the only question is why follow the whole "anti/negative/defensive" stance dished out by newspapers to keep their circulation going?

What exactly do you mean by "European experiment?" You could call everything an experiment in a way, from the US to the United Nations, from air travel to shakin' some underground rocks to extract shale gas. Heck, if we weren't brave enough to push forward all the time then mankind would never have advanced so far...
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Old Nov 6th 2014, 12:25 pm
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by astera
the only question is why follow the whole "anti/negative/defensive" stance dished out by newspapers to keep their circulation going?
Just to add some recent info about the notion of creating headlines and deflecting blame, something that politicians have become increasingly good at to mask their own failures.

Don't have to look any further back than yesterday's articles from the Beeb:

BBC News - New EU migrants add £5bn to UK, report says
BBC News - The immigration “windfall” for the Treasury

Turns out that after all this shouting and deflecting attention/blame towards "others", EU nationals have actually been adding to the UK treasury all along:

+ 5 billion Pounds from the A10 EU members (who joined in 2004)
+ 15 billion Pounds from other EU nations ("older, richer" countries)

And this is if we take into account fixed costs like defence which we shouldn't really because they wouldn't change in any case. Take those out of the equation and:

+ 10 billion Pounds from the A10
+ 18 billion Pounds from older EU nations

All this rambling about benefits, abusing the system, etc., and then the numbers come out and reveal the hypocrisy of modern day politics, where you hide the facts and prey on people's emotions on a false premise to deflect blame as far away from oneself as possible...
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Old Nov 6th 2014, 1:32 pm
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by astera
Just to add some recent info about the notion of creating headlines and deflecting blame, something that politicians have become increasingly good at to mask their own failures.

Don't have to look any further back than yesterday's articles from the Beeb:

BBC News - New EU migrants add £5bn to UK, report says
BBC News - The immigration “windfall” for the Treasury

Turns out that after all this shouting and deflecting attention/blame towards "others", EU nationals have actually been adding to the UK treasury all along:

+ 5 billion Pounds from the A10 EU members (who joined in 2004)
+ 15 billion Pounds from other EU nations ("older, richer" countries)

And this is if we take into account fixed costs like defence which we shouldn't really because they wouldn't change in any case. Take those out of the equation and:

+ 10 billion Pounds from the A10
+ 18 billion Pounds from older EU nations

All this rambling about benefits, abusing the system, etc., and then the numbers come out and reveal the hypocrisy of modern day politics, where you hide the facts and prey on people's emotions on a false premise to deflect blame as far away from oneself as possible...
Many years ago the UK had massive immigration from former Commonwealth countries - India, Pakistan, West Indies and Africa in particular (but not Australia, New Zealand and Canada). These people went into low paid occupations mainly and the 'locals' moved up the pecking order to higher paid jobs and had the economy stimulated by the increase in population. It was only a generation later that social issues, racial tension etc developed. It was great to have the biggest empire in the world once but not so great to have the people from the countries of this once great empire it seems.

Recently, mainly post 2004, the UK has had massive immigration from recently joined EU countries, most notably it has been from Poland but the red tops love stories about gypsies from Romania who beg, steal but not borrow. There are parts of the UK where migrants from former eastern European countries are propping up the work force by doing a lot of the menial jobs (like the people from the new Commonwealth did in the past). If you go to somewhere like the Lake District it is common for over half the work force in a hotel to be Polish.

What goes round comes round. Just an observation.

As Britain (as it is officially known in the EU; EEC when it joined) has had 41 years to have a referendum on 'should I stay or should I go' I wonder why this hasn't happened? Scotland has had 2 referenda on UK membership in that time.
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Old Nov 6th 2014, 1:49 pm
  #27  
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by astera
Just to add some recent info about the notion of creating headlines and deflecting blame, something that politicians have become increasingly good at to mask their own failures.

Don't have to look any further back than yesterday's articles from the Beeb:

BBC News - New EU migrants add £5bn to UK, report says
BBC News - The immigration “windfall” for the Treasury

Turns out that after all this shouting and deflecting attention/blame towards "others", EU nationals have actually been adding to the UK treasury all along:

+ 5 billion Pounds from the A10 EU members (who joined in 2004)
+ 15 billion Pounds from other EU nations ("older, richer" countries)

And this is if we take into account fixed costs like defence which we shouldn't really because they wouldn't change in any case. Take those out of the equation and:

+ 10 billion Pounds from the A10
+ 18 billion Pounds from older EU nations

All this rambling about benefits, abusing the system, etc., and then the numbers come out and reveal the hypocrisy of modern day politics, where you hide the facts and prey on people's emotions on a false premise to deflect blame as far away from oneself as possible...
These EU immigrants are also better educated than most British, according to those reports:
They were better educated, with 62% of those from the first 15 EU countries and 25% from the A10 countries having a degree, compared with 24% in the UK
Being better educated than the British, and less likely to be taking benefits, this does indicate a much different story than some say.
Immigrants who arrived since 2000 were 43% less likely than British people to receive state benefits or tax credits
Pre 2000 may have been a different story though, according to other reports.

Situations change, stories change...

Prof Dustmann, the author of the current report, is also the author of an older report showing how immigration reduces the pay of those who earn least.
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Old Nov 8th 2014, 4:37 pm
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by OzTennis
Many years ago the UK had massive immigration from former Commonwealth countries - India, Pakistan, West Indies and Africa in particular (but not Australia, New Zealand and Canada). These people went into low paid occupations mainly and the 'locals' moved up the pecking order to higher paid jobs and had the economy stimulated by the increase in population. It was only a generation later that social issues, racial tension etc developed. It was great to have the biggest empire in the world once but not so great to have the people from the countries of this once great empire it seems.
I agree. If we look at immigration and think of it as a problem then we've already missed the train (or the "boat" rather, metaphorically speaking). What has happened in the past - with the non-European influx - is the problem we have today. People targeting London transport with fireworks, female genital mutilation, forced/fixed marriages, forcing women to hide behind a hijab (or rather inside it), entire neighbourhoods that are sustained by benefits, etc.

None of this fits in with British/European culture. And yet these are issues that we have today, and will continue to have due to opening up the floodgates in the past. But of course politicians will not focus on that, now that there are votes at stake. Instead, they'll squeal and moan about the EU like it's some sort of new fab...

Now it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the difference. Australia was built on people coming in. Has European migration been a problem? Nope. Give the newcomers one generation to send the kids to school and out comes a new generation of Aussies. The UK is exactly the same.

Which kind of makes me double-angry at the lowest of the lowest in UK politics because instead of speaking up about the true problems of today (due to mistakes of the past) they're actually targeting something not only easy as a target but also beneficial to the nation (new families who happen to be propping up the GDP and contributing to the economy on a daily basis).

Last edited by astera; Nov 8th 2014 at 4:44 pm.
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Old Nov 8th 2014, 9:15 pm
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by astera
I agree. If we look at immigration and think of it as a problem then we've already missed the train (or the "boat" rather, metaphorically speaking). What has happened in the past - with the non-European influx - is the problem we have today. People targeting London transport with fireworks, female genital mutilation, forced/fixed marriages, forcing women to hide behind a hijab (or rather inside it), entire neighbourhoods that are sustained by benefits, etc.

None of this fits in with British/European culture. And yet these are issues that we have today, and will continue to have due to opening up the floodgates in the past. But of course politicians will not focus on that, now that there are votes at stake. Instead, they'll squeal and moan about the EU like it's some sort of new fab...

Now it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the difference. Australia was built on people coming in. Has European migration been a problem? Nope. Give the newcomers one generation to send the kids to school and out comes a new generation of Aussies. The UK is exactly the same.

Which kind of makes me double-angry at the lowest of the lowest in UK politics because instead of speaking up about the true problems of today (due to mistakes of the past) they're actually targeting something not only easy as a target but also beneficial to the nation (new families who happen to be propping up the GDP and contributing to the economy on a daily basis).
Its the second generation of immigrants that are the problem. The first generation have made the effort to migrate. Migrating is not easy and these guys aren't going to let their effort go to waste. They work hard, mostly in the lower paid jobs to survive. The next generation haven't had the struggle of the parents and for some reason struggle to identify with the life of their country or that of their parents.
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Old Nov 9th 2014, 1:51 am
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Default Re: Is GBP gaining or going in a hole against AUD?

Originally Posted by Beoz
Its the second generation of immigrants that are the problem. The first generation have made the effort to migrate. Migrating is not easy and these guys aren't going to let their effort go to waste. They work hard, mostly in the lower paid jobs to survive. The next generation haven't had the struggle of the parents and for some reason struggle to identify with the life of their country or that of their parents.
The fundamental idea, put about by people who really didn't think hard, was that "sure you can come to the country, and keep the cultural setup of the one you left, where could that go wrong".

The whole idea of a 'melting pot' is that cultures should flow and change - and if you are doing it properly it should flow and change TOWARDS that of the host country - otherwise what's the point on either side? We might get Tikka Masala, but in reality there is very little of the other cultures that's wanted, and quite a lot that's not. And on the immigrants' side, if they are coming to a country, it should be to be part of that country, not just economics.

And how does that play with the EU? Well the idea that you can take someone from Albania, dump them in Ealing, and expect things to go swimmingly is insane. Worse, the reason for them moving IS, explicitly, economic. Not only are they not part of the country, they have no intention of ever being part of the country.

As such the only possible reason for allowing them in in the first place is an economic transaction - and it should be judged in those terms. A minimum wage job is NEVER going to be a good economic case for the country. So why the hell is it part of the EU setup? Economic migration should be a country-led decision - what is needed, how much, when, etc. It should also be just a temporary situation, since its an economic exchange - a contract opportunity.

In short, a common market doesn't really lead to border-free work - it's instead part of a "United States of Europe" idea that doesn't really make much sense (given the cultural difference) - and so is probably well past it's sell-by date as a dead ideology.
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