Bello

Is there any hope of it getting better?

anyone got any links to reading on the subject?

Devlin

If anyone tells you they know for sure then they are liars. If had to bet a substantial amount of money then I would bet that that over the short-medium term the GBP will continue to lose value against the AUD.

The UK has begun a very nasty recession and I think that Australia won't be in a serious recession for at least 18 months.

DownUnderPaddy

You will see ten differing views from ten different people on this subject but I tend to agree with Devlins logic here. i.e. there probably will be a lag between the downturn in the UK economy and that in AUS. As a result, the exchange rate may probably get worse for a signifigant period of time before it gets better.

nickallen1969

Read an article in the economist ( not my normal reading material , thats the beano ) about 3 weeks ago which was predicting the the GBP/AUD rate would fall to a low of about 1.9 aud to the pound by the end of this year, they were then predicting a massive shift in the opposite direction as the worldwide credit crunch finlly hits Oz resulting in the exchnge rate rising as high as 2.9 dollars to the pound. As stated this is not my normal reading material so how acurate they are is anyones guess.

regards

skoots76

Hi

If it does work out like that then i will be a happy man, Were going out there in 18months & although we wont get a good exchange rate to start with on the first amount we exchange. Im hoping that after we have rented for a year or so we will then sell our house and bring our equity over when the exchange rate is in our favor. of course this is just wishful thinking as I have no idea how its going to happen.

Bello

Thanks for the replies!

Well i've come to the conclusion that things are going to continue getting worse for a while now, especially when the uk is offically in a recession so i've just sent my money over whilst i can still get better than 2-1..

llanfachreth

The UK is not officially in a recession...

tawkins1

YET!

Bello

lol opps, i worded what i mean't a bit wrong, i mean't when we're offically in a recession.

alipally

I read this too. Same as you, it's not my usual reading material, but as this is such an important decision for us and could have many implications, I thought it best to swot up a bit on the best guesses (That's all they are really, although I hope that their guesses are based on more than sniffing the night air!)
The general feeling I got was that it's going to be at least 12 months before the exchange rate looks acceptable to us anyway... I'd love 2.9, but I don't know if it's going to happen.

So we're keeping it here for the next 12 months in the Halifax... paying in the max at the beginning and making the minimum £25 per month for 12 months. We'll earn 12% AER on the bulk of it. I seriously doubt that I'd make that sort of return on my house if I waited to sell.... in fact the doom sayers foretell a further drop in house prices over the next year.

It's not an exact science, and we'll need some dosh to buy a car, pay deposits on rentals and survive until we obtain gainful employment, but we'll manage on a minimum, rather than feeling flash, which we imagined we would when the rate was 2.53 last year..... Once we're earning Aus$ the whole exchange rate thing will have less significance, until we come to buy a house.

If anyone is doing anything else I'd love to hear about it, as I can't think what else we can do in order to protect ourselves and avoid making a hasty exchange, then regretting it later because we should have sat it out for a bit longer. If anyone else can remember what happened last time the rates looked like this and what happened next can they offer any nuggets of information that we may be lacking???

Grayling

Just remember, if you are on a PR visa, that you will be liable for Australian tax on the interest and may be liable for CGT on any forex gains

jad n rich

Could you explain how you earn 12% sound brilliant but what sort of investment is this.

alipally

www.halifax.co.uk
The advert is on the homepage saying 10% if you invest an initial deposit of £5000 or more in the first 4 weeks after opening the account they pay 12% AER! The offer ends on 20th July so you'll have to be quick though. I've had a real good look round and this is by far and away the best savings deal on the market and there's no upper limit on the initial deposit (although I wouldn't put more than £35,000 in any one account because the government won't pay any more back if the bank goes bump!) it's even better than an ISA!

You have to leave the money alone(not make any withdrawals) for 12 months and pay in £25 minimum (£500 max) every month by standing order without missing a payment to get this deal.
If anyone finds anything better let me know!!!

TMRE

Would be good if they gave you 12% on the initial deposit as well. Even my puppy dog eyes couldn't persuade them this morning

kevinl

I think you will find that the max you can pay into this account is £500 per month and that to get the 12% you have to have £5000 + in another Halifax savings account, that pays pretty poor interest. Not in the one paying 12%.
The max you can pay in, in a year is £6000 and that is spread over the year.

Thats how it was explained to me, if it looks to good to be true, it probably is.

Correct me if I'm wrong and I will be pleased.

Kev