Beoz

But how would immigration stagnate salaries when you previously said they would command a higher salary? That effect natural lifts salaries.

China or foreign money was never really the source of price growth. The studies were done, and the result was it was too minimal to make an effect. However, a load of Chinese people all lined up for a property inspection in Epping made a great headline.

I actually don't disagree there. For some investors its like an addiction and with the negative gearing setup to reward bad investments, there is virtually no risk.

The investor backed by NG and cheap money is the reason why property prices shot up, not the immigrant.

the troubadour

How would immigration stagnate wages? Have you not been reading anything to date? Okay as an example, IT industry have been bringing in 457's for years,having generic analysis work, SQL skills, Java skills, and what have you working well under market rates until PR at any rate.


But ask yourself the one fundamental question. Why are incomes stagnating if indeed there was a skill shortage.


Chinese overseas investors had some 15% of Sydney market until recently. Lots of darkened apartments in Epping I believe. Could be overseas buyers not interested in renting out?

Beoz

Eh? A market rate is driven by what a market is prepared to pay. When something is new and few people have the knowledge or experience to perform that role it drives the rate higher. This very soon shifts when more people gain those skills.

You must remember the silly rates Java programmers where getting at the turn of the century in London? These rates were never sustainable and those Java programmers clearly knew the days of those rates were numbered when Java became more mainstream for a developer.

Seriously man, importing a few Java programmers might service demand short term, but long term declines in rates are generated from new people entering the system and the ability to send that work to India, Romania, or somewhere cheaper. That's not immigration.



Stagnate wages is a global effect, not a local one. Look at Japan, no wage growth at all and how's their immigration plan?

Productivity growth is the key, productivity growth = more money which = higher wages growth which in turn = higher inflation and higher interest rates.

Why is global productivity so low when unemployment is also so low the apparent automation boom that hit? This is something puzzling economists. Some blame ultra low interest rates reducing the desire to increase output, some blame fear of expansion still lingering from the GFC.

I think unions have to portion a fair bit of blame for not evolving with the times. Gone of the days of picket lines to promote a pay rise, unions need to be working with businesses in a you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours, approach.

They should be saying to businesses, if we can get our members to increase productivity, our members expect to receive a share of that productivity growth. Its a no brainer for both sides and productivity, which is the global root cause of the stagnate wages in a time when low unemployment rates should be pushing wages higher.


2% apparently

Are Chinese buyers driving up Australia's housing prices? - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

the troubadour

Well no as you will know by now it is not a matter of what the market can afford but the type of loan given. Doesn't mean it can be necessary afforded, it does mean irresponsible leverage though. Interest only loans being a classic example meaning when terms change, even without an RBA interest rise many of these will be hit very hard. But then this has been expressed with some regularity, you preferring to believe what you want to believe regardless of the proven inadequacy of the argument used.


Outsourcing temporarily immigration as 'skilled visa' to private operators was never a wise move. 7.30 Report again outlined the exploitative nature of certain migration agents cheating clients out of funds from Sub Continent. But besides that the exploitative nature of too many employers has clearly shown the rules are not being policed.


IT industry was certainly an area which saw locals displaced by heavy importation of overseas workers.


Really? Why not have a German system where Unions sit on boards and formulate a part in decision making rather than 'bashing' them at every opportunity. There is not much left for workers these days from total domination and abuse that goes with that other than Unions at least ensuring (hopefully) that the legal aspects are at least followed.


As for overseas buyers, you were too quick of the mark with goggle. I referred to the Sydney market not Australia wide which over relied on foreign housing investment. 80% of which I recall came from China. Or 15% of Sydney market.

Beoz

I quoted market rate on Java programmers. Not property. But since you divert, property is also driven on what the market can afford and is prepared to pay. To suggest otherwise is complete nonsense.

However I do not disagree, for those who have put themselves in a tight situation and could find themselves unable to afford their property should a shift occur, then yes, not great. Thankfully we all know (excluding you for some reason), governments and banks aren't going to sink a property market with so much of their own vested interest tied to it.

I am sure there's a few dodgy migration agents, a few being the important point. So what?

Complete rubbish. Why do you preach such nonsense? Perhaps you were too greedy and resentful of your spoils as a Java programmer back in 2000 when there we slim pickings around. You should have been cleaver and put that £12,000 per month into something, knowing full well the market demanded more Java programmers and it was only a matter of time before it came. Your lack of foresight is not the fault of immigration. Its your fault. Bit like the fact you cannot afford an inner city property and that's the only place you choose to live. No one elses fault than your own.

If the unions are bringing productivity to the table then why not. People are can be very productive if incentive is right. The German unions might be on to something. Its a pity the Australian unions are relics of their former glory losing thousands of members.

Yeah no one ever seems to be able to pinpoint how many Chinese investors there really are, and in any case who cares. Plenty of property around for people to buy and at $15.36 billion AUD worth of investment in the Sydney market, that's plenty of Architects, Structural Engineers, Mechanical Engineers, Plumbers, Concreters, Crane Driver, Steel Makers, Sparkies, kept employed.

You shouldn't be so shallow in your assessment of overseas buyers and what they bring to the table.

the troubadour

Lost an entire response to all above 'propositions', when computer froze and just can't be arsed repeating constantly the same tired argument.


We do not need record or close to record immigration as things stand, so Boez afraid you'll just have to take a hit on your over priced pile ......


If you have no understanding of the consequences of overseas investment in the housing market, it is you whom are shallow.
There's a perfectly good reason Asian countries as a rule have very clear laws around foreigners buying. Yes it was 12% of the Sydney market. Never mentioned Australia wide market.


It industry was inundated by middle skilled IT personal from abroad. The consequences being local workers not getting a look in....




.

Beoz

You said 15% in post 122. You don't know if you are coming or going.

Define an IT worker?

Beoz

https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-cuts-fixed-rates-for-property-investors-20180302-p4z2l2.html

You better give the regulator a poke. The banks are about to give the market a rise. Might need to suggest they reduce that 30% cap.

the troubadour

Glad you take in some of what I write then. Just testing. Yes it was 15% of Sydney market. Already explained some of the lower positions swamped by overseas incomers. Hardly needs definition, even to you, what an IT worker is.

the troubadour

Desperation creeping into the market. Not going to end well. Still Aussie dollar down. If the dollar continues its downward trek as some people are desperately hoping, Aussie real estate may yet prove a steal for foreign investors. Although I wonder if large numbers already having an investment, may panic and sell in an attempt to cut losses? I personally don't think it will fall to that extent ....but its all a game of chance.

Beoz

As I said, you don't know if you are coming or going. Even defining someone as IT these days is like saying "hey I work in construction or retail" - yeah as what?

Beoz

I recall the dooms dayers predicting on this very forum 5 years ago the AUD would be heading for 50c very quickly. .... still waiting.

the troubadour

Certainly not my wish. I'd love it to go up to $1,10.

the troubadour

WE all know what is meant and I certainly know where I am going. Only too happy to provide you a little inspiration as well.
So for you fine if entry level jobs taken by incomers?

Beoz

Only if they bring something to the table which is generally what skilled incomers do.

Paying entry level of any occupation anything above the 457 salary threshold is utter madness.

The age of entitlement is over, especially for entry level.