Alfresco

Today!

paulry

1.72

charlie brown

ok don't rub it in

wilf70

I think the BP problem is having a serious effect across the board along with not lifting interest rates.Though that should be offset to a certain extent by a no-QE month.A survey of about sixty economists has said that it doesn't think interest rates will rise until the new year--I think much earlier than that.Any thoughts???

eugene43

Gordon Brown would of been a better choice

charlie brown

[quote=eugene43;8624581]Gordon Brown would of been a better choice[/quo

noooooooo you are having a laugh,

littda01

Personally don't think BP having much impact on the £. Its a nasty issue for sure, but the effect can be seen clearly in BPs stock price and those of other related companies.

The poll of 60 economists is predicting around 1% by mid-2011. Inflation is running near 4%, but the claim is its inflation on one-off items i.e. its not a real inflationary trend. Sounds like some wishful thinking to me, but anyway can't see where the pressure for a rate rise could come from.

The recovery is very sluggish and fragile, and is about to come under massive pressure from the largest public sector cuts for a generation.

If they could cut rates, they'd be doing it, never mind raising them...

iamthecreaturefromuranus

Here's something else to chuck into your 'doom and gloom' calculations.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10290933.stm

littda01

Japan has ridiculous debt, but also one crucial difference v Western economies. The Japanese populace save like trojans, and the govt sells a lot of their debt to them, as opposed to relying on the markets. But this is changing, and the new generations of Japanese are more spenders than their parents.

Japan is also Australia's biggest export market, oh dear

ABCDiamond

And with the Japanese people now spending more than they used to, will they buy even more from Australia ??

wilf70

Anyone seen the Soros speech in the SMH??[and the follow on comments by readers].Economywatch.com has an article on the discovery of massive iron ore deposits in Siberia--but problems of location etc.Possible effect on resource prices.The article on the BBC website about Japan and its debts came as a shock never realized that it was at that level--you can locate it via Iamacreaturefronuranus above.Very interesting to read.And spending by the younger generation;rather than saving,presupposes they will have any money--where is it going to come from if there hard earned savings in gov't bonds has become valueless???

paulry

Nice try!

littda01

As pointed out by Wilf, not if their economy is screwed

freebo

Bang on, also over the past few years Japan has had one of the lowest birthrates of any developed country, meaning the savings of older Japanese people (which are to a great extent held in Japanese Govt Bonds, i.e. the govts debt), are being withdrawn to finance the aging populations retirement.

Japan's debt/GDP ratio is 2nd only to Zimbabwe, at 192%, Greece is/was 115%.

It looks increasingly possible that Japan faces a sovereign debt crisis of her own, the main question being will they have theirs before the UK and USA (Europe already appears favorite to be first).

ABCDiamond

But if the population are actually spending more, rather than saving it, what will they be spending it on ?

An economy may be screwed, but if people are still working and earning and spending, rather than saving, then things must still be being bought.