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Old Mar 7th 2005, 10:57 am   #1
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Default $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

hi there,
I have just set up my ozzie bank account with CBA and am now ready to exchange all my money and put it in my new a/c. however, should i wait and see if the exchange rate improves? i know this is a difficlut ? to give advice on as the market is hard to predict, but any advice would be very welcome.

99.9% of me just wants to exchange all my money, get it in my ozzie a/c and forget about it until i get to oz in 8 weeks time, i can then concentrate on sorting out all the other things that need doing. what do you all think?
cheers
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Old Mar 7th 2005, 11:02 am   #2
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Default Re: $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

The Financial Times ran an article on this subject on Thursday 3 March. Essentially there no firm conclusion even within market experts. The majority think the Aussie dollar will get wekaer because, like the US, it is running a big current account deficit and interest rates ar going up again. There is a dissenting view that continued Chinese demand for commodities such as iron ore is still a great enough demand on teh Aussie dollar that it will get even stronger.

Not much help, eh? Know how you feel, I've just got my CBA account too. My flights arew booked for 10 weeks time and I'm wondering just like you. Personally, I'm gonna hold to he last minute.
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Old Mar 7th 2005, 11:07 am   #3
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Default Re: $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wongstonn
The Financial Times ran an article on this subject on Thursday 3 March. Essentially there no firm conclusion even within market experts. The majority think the Aussie dollar will get wekaer because, like the US, it is running a big current account deficit and interest rates ar going up again. There is a dissenting view that continued Chinese demand for commodities such as iron ore is still a great enough demand on teh Aussie dollar that it will get even stronger.

Not much help, eh? Know how you feel, I've just got my CBA account too. My flights arew booked for 10 weeks time and I'm wondering just like you. Personally, I'm gonna hold to he last minute.
I'm going to be opening my CBA when I land in 2 weeks. I'm taking enough cash / credit cards to see me through until it gets to a decent level. I reckon it will rise to 2.44 - 2.5.

Rob
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Old Mar 7th 2005, 11:07 am   #4
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Default Re: $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

Hi Threlly! (Sarah!)

Hope you are well, I'm getting SO excited now! See you in Manly/Sydney/Dee Why soon!

On the exchange rate, I too was pondering (good word) this same question. Shall I buy lots of $$ now, open the account and leave them in there ready for when we get there?

I honestly don't know. Plus, what about charges for doing this? Anyone know anything about this?

Lots of love

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Old Mar 7th 2005, 12:27 pm   #5
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Smile Re: $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

Hi djdutts,
i am also getting very excited-only 8 weeks till we go and so much to sort out. i think i am going to exchange all my money this week and tick another number off my long long list of things to do b4 we go.
see you in sydney - late june/early july time
cheers



Quote:
Originally Posted by djdutts
Hi Threlly! (Sarah!)

Hope you are well, I'm getting SO excited now! See you in Manly/Sydney/Dee Why soon!

On the exchange rate, I too was pondering (good word) this same question. Shall I buy lots of $$ now, open the account and leave them in there ready for when we get there?

I honestly don't know. Plus, what about charges for doing this? Anyone know anything about this?

Lots of love

Chris
http://www.StandupSpeakup.co.uk
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12/08/04 - Medicals sent to Sydney,
18/08/04 - Received my UK police checks today
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Old Mar 7th 2005, 1:39 pm   #6
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Default Re: $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by threlly
hi there,
I have just set up my ozzie bank account with CBA and am now ready to exchange all my money and put it in my new a/c. however, should i wait and see if the exchange rate improves? i know this is a difficlut ? to give advice on as the market is hard to predict, but any advice would be very welcome.

99.9% of me just wants to exchange all my money, get it in my ozzie a/c and forget about it until i get to oz in 8 weeks time, i can then concentrate on sorting out all the other things that need doing. what do you all think?
cheers
I have been considering the very same question. I get my redundancy cheque tomorrow and I don't know whether to:

1. Blow the lot on shoes
2. Do the sensible thing and change it over as soon as it clears - but that's boring.

I hate being sensible

Lucy
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Old Mar 7th 2005, 1:42 pm   #7
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Default Re: $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by threlly
hi there,
I have just set up my ozzie bank account with CBA and am now ready to exchange all my money and put it in my new a/c. however, should i wait and see if the exchange rate improves? i know this is a difficlut ? to give advice on as the market is hard to predict, but any advice would be very welcome.

99.9% of me just wants to exchange all my money, get it in my ozzie a/c and forget about it until i get to oz in 8 weeks time, i can then concentrate on sorting out all the other things that need doing. what do you all think?
cheers
Hiya Threlly

NO. That is my straightforward response - but life is usually never that simple!

You have another 7/8 weeks before you arrive in Australia. If you leave it for another couple of weeks now, at least it will have the chance of moving upwards again and, as has been shown often in the past, a week is a long time with the Australian dollar.

Also - have a read of the other thread currently going - called
"Exchange Rates - Again" (I think). There are some very useful "professional" thoughts there - unlike most of us ungifted amateurs!!

A week ago the exchange rate was at $2.45+ and it is currently around $2.41.

Its always a tough call but you have to do what you are easy with - if you are happy with today's rate - do it - next week it could be $2.45+ again or $2.35. Obviously a lot depends on how much you have to lose or gain - ie how much sterling you can exchange. A small amount may not mean much either way but, say, your house proceeds could make a significant difference - ie it could pay for your car at the other end.

When I did a forward contract - another possible option for you - some good few weeks ago I was happy with the rate at $2.55 and did my business. It hasn't been at that rate since and I was initially thinking of hanging on for $2.60. I am now glad that I didn't.

Good luck !!

Jim
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Old Mar 8th 2005, 8:42 am   #8
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Default Re: $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by threlly
hi there,
I have just set up my ozzie bank account with CBA and am now ready to exchange all my money and put it in my new a/c. however, should i wait and see if the exchange rate improves? i know this is a difficlut ? to give advice on as the market is hard to predict, but any advice would be very welcome.

99.9% of me just wants to exchange all my money, get it in my ozzie a/c and forget about it until i get to oz in 8 weeks time, i can then concentrate on sorting out all the other things that need doing. what do you all think?
cheers
Been plotting the Commonwealth Banks official exchange rate on transfers between £10,000 and £50,000. Get a daily rate update sent as an email from [email protected], just email and say Australia.

Today they are quoting £1=$2.4065.

See that attached graph for the last few weeks trend.

Cheers Paul
Attached Thumbnails
$ exchange rate-should i buy now?-commbank_aud.jpg  
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Old Mar 8th 2005, 8:54 am   #9
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Default Re: $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

I chnged my $`s to £`s yesterday, and the broker said he didn`t think it would changemuch over the next week or so.

Personally I think you should wait a little as the Bank of England will raise interest rates again soon and then the £ will be stronger again.... but as always it`s just guesswork.
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Old Mar 8th 2005, 10:09 am   #10
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Default Re: $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stormz
I chnged my $`s to £`s yesterday, and the broker said he didn`t think it would changemuch over the next week or so.

Personally I think you should wait a little as the Bank of England will raise interest rates again soon and then the £ will be stronger again.... but as always it`s just guesswork.
I know they are supposed to be independent, but do you really think the BoE will be allowed to raise interests rates in the UK in the month or two before a general election? The wise men (and women) who sit on the BoE panel would be kissing their Knighthoods away. The Aussie news is speculating that their rates might go up another 0.25% shortly. But this is all built into the current rate.

So anyone that tells you what the rate will do thinks themselves more knowledgeable than the sum of all the economists and traders in the world. You may guess right, but that is all it is - a guess.

My best advice is that at 2.42 (or whatever it is now) that isn't bad so convert now. If it goes up you might feel smug for a while but you would probably kick yourself longer and harder if it goes down.
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Old Apr 2nd 2005, 7:36 pm   #11
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Default Re: $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gajjitt
Been plotting the Commonwealth Banks official exchange rate on transfers between £10,000 and £50,000. Get a daily rate update sent as an email from [email protected], just email and say Australia.

Today they are quoting £1=$2.4065.

See that attached graph for the last few weeks trend.

Cheers Paul
Commonwealth Bank Exchange rate update

yesterday: £1=$2.4275

Cheers Paul
Attached Thumbnails
$ exchange rate-should i buy now?-commbank_aud_2_apr_05.jpg  
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Old Apr 2nd 2005, 9:32 pm   #12
 
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Default Re: $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

Having looked at the last few years, historically the pound often gets stronger in the UK summer.

Have a look at the bbc graph for the last 12 months http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/f...elve_month.stm

It peaked at $2.70/£ last June and with an election coming up that could affect the rate as well.

As someone else mentioned none of us are experts and noone has a crystal ball.

If you have set up the CBA Migrant Account with the London Account did you know you can leave your pounds there for up to 2 years after emigrating

Transferring money is as simple as phoning London and it is in your Aussie account 48 hours later. As it's earning interest and you don't pay any tax on it once you leave it could be worth leaving what you don't need now and seeing what happens.
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Old Apr 2nd 2005, 10:03 pm   #13
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Default Re: $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

We exchanged our in November, 2004 and got a rate of 2.45 which although at the time did not seem that great, it seems quite reasonable now. I made the exchange pretty soon after getting the account sset up. For nights i lay in bed thinking about how and when to move the money. Glad I just done it and could then sleep at night.

IMPORTANT, DON'T FORGET!!!! - When you arrive in Australia and have you TFN (Tax File Numbers) you must take these numbers and present them to you bank otherwise the Ozzy government will be helping themselves to nearly 50% of your interest! (This can be refunded).

Good luck eveyone!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flying Banana
Having looked at the last few years, historically the pound often gets stronger in the UK summer.

Have a look at the bbc graph for the last 12 months http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/f...elve_month.stm

It peaked at $2.70/£ last June and with an election coming up that could affect the rate as well.

As someone else mentioned none of us are experts and noone has a crystal ball.

If you have set up the CBA Migrant Account with the London Account did you know you can leave your pounds there for up to 2 years after emigrating

Transferring money is as simple as phoning London and it is in your Aussie account 48 hours later. As it's earning interest and you don't pay any tax on it once you leave it could be worth leaving what you don't need now and seeing what happens.
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Old Apr 3rd 2005, 9:54 am   #14
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Default Re: $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

Hi Flying Banana,
i didnt realise u could do that. i was thinking of exchanging this week as i only have 4 weeks till we go and i just want it sorted. when i put my £'s in my cba a/c, does it go straight to dollars or do i ask them to exchange it to dollars when i am ready, say just b4 i go if i want to wait to see if the rate goes up?
cheers


Quote:
Originally Posted by Flying Banana
Having looked at the last few years, historically the pound often gets stronger in the UK summer.

Have a look at the bbc graph for the last 12 months http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/f...elve_month.stm

It peaked at $2.70/£ last June and with an election coming up that could affect the rate as well.

As someone else mentioned none of us are experts and noone has a crystal ball.

If you have set up the CBA Migrant Account with the London Account did you know you can leave your pounds there for up to 2 years after emigrating

Transferring money is as simple as phoning London and it is in your Aussie account 48 hours later. As it's earning interest and you don't pay any tax on it once you leave it could be worth leaving what you don't need now and seeing what happens.
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09/07/04 - Credit Card Charged
19/07/04 - Police checks and Medicals requested
04/08/04 - Had medicals 06/08/2004 - received Australian Police checks
12/08/04 - Medicals sent to Sydney,
18/08/04 - Received my UK police checks today
20/08/04 - UK & OZ Police Checks and form 1022 sent to ASPC by agent.
09/11/04 - $100,000 Bond requested
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Old Apr 3rd 2005, 10:00 am   #15
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Default Re: $ exchange rate-should i buy now?

Guys just a word of warning... I was hanging onto my money because I didnt get round to doing it figured it'd be easy to do when here in Aus... then I tried to do it...

Barclays - wont move more than 2K£ on internet banking, etc , need power of attorney signed in UK before they'll do anything bigger without being present - really awkward.

I was with HIFX to transfer my bond and they were faultless but I was in UK and it was easy. Now Im in Aus I have to re-register with them etc and time didnt allow - so Ive registered with tranzfers.com done some trades online and they've been great . The main advantage of Tranzfers is you can setup a trade, put hte money in their acount and 'hold' it so that you dont actually buy your dollars until you hit the button on the web later - that can be 1 minute, 1 day, or 1 moth I guess no limit... but HIFX will require you to pick a date of a futures contract to do the same thing.... big restriction when you just need to move some money around and have it held somehwere in case .

Tranzfers charge £7 per trade - but the rates are pretty outstanding .even on smaller sums.
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