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Old Feb 23rd 2003, 10:22 am   #16
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Default Re: $ AD 2.66 per U.K. Pound, not good :(

Quote:
Originally posted by scoobydooathome
The rate is now 2.64 ...

Anyone know otherwise,

Wholesale rate back up to $2.67 this morning. - only 13 cents down on the week!!
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Old Feb 23rd 2003, 11:32 am   #17
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Default Re: $ AD 2.66 per U.K. Pound, not good :(

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Originally posted by kevmitch
Wholesale rate back up to $2.67 this morning. - only 13 cents down on the week!!
Nice one

any optimism is always welcome,

Cheers,
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Cheers,

The Scoobydoofamilyathome, soon to give OZ a try,

P.R. Visa's granted, travelling 7th September 2003, watch out Perth were on our way !!!

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Old Feb 23rd 2003, 11:45 pm   #18
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Default Re: $ AD 2.66 per U.K. Pound, not good :(

Quote:
Originally posted by scoobydooathome
This has to be a wind up, please someone tel me that its gonna go up again

Hoping it look's better in a couple of months time, but who know's ...

Cheers,
The rate now for anyone coming is great whats your problem ?
it has been as high as $1.70 to the pound and we only got $1.98 9 years ago .
If you are worried about such a small move in rates is it worth coming to the land of plenty?



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Old Feb 24th 2003, 1:45 am   #19
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Quote:
Originally posted by 2thick
Well it will always suit somebody - PB and some of the others should be ecstatic as they're going in the other direction. Actually aren't you going back to the Czech Republic soon Herman? How's their currency holding up with all this global uncertainty?

2thick
The Czech crown is stronger against the pound than it was last time I was there a year ago, but only fractionally. They'll be on Euro's pretty soon after joining the EU anyway, which is probably good for them (but may mean higher costs for tourists). Its always been a country with two sets of prices anyway. I phoned a hotel outside of Prague that we were interested in, and asked if they spoke English - they did. So I asked for a price per night for a standard room - to me they said "only US$40". Seemed pricey to my wife so she phoned a few hours later and in Czech asked for a price for the night, the answer? US$12. Not sure if the European parliament will be able to stop this!

Maybe thats what Aussie's should do to rich British expats with house prices - locals price $250k, British expats price $500k!!
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Old Feb 24th 2003, 6:19 am   #20
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Quote:
Originally posted by etlniwd
The truth is that nobody knows which way it will go.

If any of us knew for sure then we'd all be stinking rich in a few months time.

I wouldn't presume to know but I don't believe that exchange rates change without there being fundamental reasons for the change.

In Feb 97 the rate was GBP=AUS$2.05. The gold price was US$410. US President Clinton followed a "strong dollar" policy during his tenure. At the same time we had the stock market bubble. Billions of dollars of foreign currencies (necessary to support the value of the US dollar) flowed into the US stock markets. This strong dollar policy and some sinister acts (such as dumping of gold on the markets by US and foreign central banks) pushed the gold price down to a low of US$270 by Feb 2001. Other commodity prices were also suppressed. Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Norway are all countries whose economies are commodity based. As the price of gold dropped from 410 to 270, Australia's exchange rate against sterling dropped from 2.05 to 2.74. Coincidence? No.

Decades of overspending and huge borrowings in the US has now forced the US dollar to depreciate against the world's currencies. As a result Gold has now increased in price to US$350. We are in another gold bull run and the price will increase further as the US$ depreciates further. Commodity prices in general are going up (oil is at $35 a barrel, wheat, grain etc are all up). This is good for NZ, Australia, Norway, South Africa and Canada. The currencies of each of these countries has appreciated as the gold price has increased and will appreciate further.

If gold breaks above US$400, I think that the AUS$ may well revert to a 2 to 1 ratio with the pound (or better).
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Old Feb 24th 2003, 6:36 am   #21
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Quote:
Originally posted by Goose
If gold breaks above US$400, I think that the AUS$ may well revert to a 2 to 1 ratio with the pound (or better).
Nice bit of analysis. Notice how there is always an "IF" in it somewhere? Sort of makes it 50:50 or two bob each way in plain speak.
 
Old Feb 24th 2003, 6:40 am   #22
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Quote:
Originally posted by Goose
I wouldn't presume to know but I don't believe that exchange rates change without there being fundamental reasons for the change.

In Feb 97 the rate was GBP=AUS$2.05. The gold price was US$410. US President Clinton followed a "strong dollar" policy during his tenure. At the same time we had the stock market bubble. Billions of dollars of foreign currencies (necessary to support the value of the US dollar) flowed into the US stock markets. This strong dollar policy and some sinister acts (such as dumping of gold on the markets by US and foreign central banks) pushed the gold price down to a low of US$270 by Feb 2001. Other commodity prices were also suppressed. Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Norway are all countries whose economies are commodity based. As the price of gold dropped from 410 to 270, Australia's exchange rate against sterling dropped from 2.05 to 2.74. Coincidence? No.

Decades of overspending and huge borrowings in the US has now forced the US dollar to depreciate against the world's currencies. As a result Gold has now increased in price to US$350. We are in another gold bull run and the price will increase further as the US$ depreciates further. Commodity prices in general are going up (oil is at $35 a barrel, wheat, grain etc are all up). This is good for NZ, Australia, Norway, South Africa and Canada. The currencies of each of these countries has appreciated as the gold price has increased and will appreciate further.

If gold breaks above US$400, I think that the AUS$ may well revert to a 2 to 1 ratio with the pound (or better).

I hope you are spot on but you left out the fact Australia is in a drought and importing Wheat from the UK plus its debt levels are growing owing to imports out stripping exports?
The Gold price will dive once the war has been sorted , so I look forward to the rates you quote more in hope than anything else.




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Old Feb 24th 2003, 8:53 am   #23
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I doubt it PB. The current upswing in the gold price began in 2001 (long before the possibility of this war in Iraq). Gold reacts inversely to the US$. The US$ is depreciating and will continue to depreciate as funds fly out of the US and the necessary US$3 billion required to flow into the US everyday to prop up the US$ evaporates. It is suspected that there might be a US$20 to US$30 war premium built into the gold price, but no more. The combination of factors effecting the world at the moment (low interest rates, bearish stock markets, devaluing US$, the US and Europe facing rescession) all combine to offer gold as an attractive option - a flight to safety if you will.

If you believe that the stock markets are at their bottom and will fall no further then you would probably not invest in gold, but if you suspect that stocks have much further to fall, that bonds have had their day then you might consider gold. Many have been and this is pushing up the price of gold (there are a huge number of other factors but I'd keep you here all night yakking about it). Suffice to say that if you are going back to the UK, I reckon you are going to score if you hold on before converting.
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Old Feb 24th 2003, 10:00 am   #24
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Oanda's got 2.639 right now and the rate you can buy at will be about 2 cents lower.

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Old Feb 24th 2003, 11:53 am   #25
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Sterling set to continue its downward spiral.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/030221/80/dttcy.html

"The market is repricing the currency and ... in 3-6 months we could see sterling 10 percent weaker."

Last edited by Devlin; Feb 24th 2003 at 11:56 am.
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Old Feb 24th 2003, 1:18 pm   #26
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Well spotted, Devlin.
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Old Feb 24th 2003, 11:59 pm   #27
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Quote:
Originally posted by Goose
I doubt it PB. The current upswing in the gold price began in 2001 (long before the possibility of this war in Iraq). Gold reacts inversely to the US$. The US$ is depreciating and will continue to depreciate as funds fly out of the US and the necessary US$3 billion required to flow into the US everyday to prop up the US$ evaporates. It is suspected that there might be a US$20 to US$30 war premium built into the gold price, but no more. The combination of factors effecting the world at the moment (low interest rates, bearish stock markets, devaluing US$, the US and Europe facing rescession) all combine to offer gold as an attractive option - a flight to safety if you will.

If you believe that the stock markets are at their bottom and will fall no further then you would probably not invest in gold, but if you suspect that stocks have much further to fall, that bonds have had their day then you might consider gold. Many have been and this is pushing up the price of gold (there are a huge number of other factors but I'd keep you here all night yakking about it). Suffice to say that if you are going back to the UK, I reckon you are going to score if you hold on before converting.

You make a good case but gold has gone up $50 over the last couple of months its only a mineral and will lose its value as quick as it went up .
The rubber dollar has gone slightly higher because as you say interest rates in UK and USA have come down but Australia has big problems with the drought and imports its debt level is on the up.
If interest rates in Australia follow the UK the rubber dollar will lose ground again , when it was 2-1 the interest rates where 4% higher here than the UK at the dollars highest value they where 17% and the country was pushed into rescession.
Australia needs a strong Japanest and Asia market which in turn relies on the USA , its ecomony right now is driven by the housing market which is peaking and new house approvels are slowing down.
Still I live in hope any rise is welcome and but could be yet another false dawn.



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Old Feb 25th 2003, 2:56 am   #28
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Here is another link to an article dated today which better explains the benefits that increasing commodity prices are having on the Aus $ and why the Aus $ should strengthen even more (as should the SA Rand, NZ dollar and Canadian dollar) in months to come.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi...q7MRVAQXVzdHJh
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Old Feb 25th 2003, 3:07 am   #29
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Quote:
Originally posted by Goose
Here is another link to an article dated today which better explains the benefits that increasing commodity prices are having on the Aus $ and why the Aus $ should strengthen even more (as should the SA Rand, NZ dollar and Canadian dollar) in months to come.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi...q7MRVAQXVzdHJh
Just when you think you have it all worked out, so does every one else on the other side.
 
Old Feb 25th 2003, 4:18 am   #30
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Quote:
Originally posted by Goose
Here is another link to an article dated today which better explains the benefits that increasing commodity prices are having on the Aus $ and why the Aus $ should strengthen even more (as should the SA Rand, NZ dollar and Canadian dollar) in months to come.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi...q7MRVAQXVzdHJh

Look they cannot win the country is a primary producer its sells materials and food stuffs then pays to import finished goods , a higher dollar means they get less for exports and imports become cheap so the local producers cannot sell on world markets .
Companies like BHP Billiton are Brit controlled and are taking out profit to invest elsewhere , the press are taking about if Australia can afford to keep the small task force in the Middle east plus a few planes have put the country deeper in the red.


The Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the South African rand and the Canadian dollar all tend to gain as commodity prices rise because of the reliance in those countries on raw materials for export earnings.


The impact of the appreciating Australian dollar is beginning to be felt by exporters. Yesterday, BHP Billiton, the world's biggest miner, said costs at the company's mines and smelters rose by $65 million during the first half because of the rise in the Australian dollar.



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